Who Is Predicted To Win Daytona 500

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3. Who Is Predicted To Win Daytona 500 Winner
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5. Who Is Predicted To Win Daytona 500 Tickets

It's finally here: the eve of the kitschest night of the year: the Eurovision song contest. While for most the fun comes tomorrow – who'll have the strangest accent? Will the hosts be dire? Will anyone actually give the UK any points? – for us at the Datablog the real fun, of course, is in the stats.

So, all week we've done nothing more than work out how to predict who's going to win this year's contest. And we're going to – boldly – set out what we reckon below. But any gambling losses as a result of our predictions are, we're afraid, entirely on your own heads.

We've tried to predict the Eurovision before, in 2011, and didn't do too badly: the eventual winner was in our predicted top three. This year, though, we've got two rival systems – one from our data editor, James, and the other from Margot Huysman.

Prediction one: the cynic's view – James

By now, even infants aren't naïve enough to think the Eurovision Song Contest has anything to do with music. It's all about politics: who likes who, who's in, who's out – and who might cut off the oil supply this winter if they don't get douze points.

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Crunching scoring data from the last ten years corroborates the cynics' view (as most things do): voting blocs seem to be pretty real, and points given correlate with points received. We've put all of this voting information in the interactive graphic below. The eastern European voting bloc in particular seems quite strong:

So, what does that mean for the winner? At the extreme, it suggests we could ignore the song entirely, and just look at the voting patterns for the last decade: the countries who score well one year should score pretty well the next (with the song being mere random noise).

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That's what we've shown in the table below – which averages scores over the last decade, then removes countries which haven't reached the final for the last five years.

Average scores, recent non-finalists removed

Click headings to sort columns

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It seems to bode well in particular for Azerbaijan and Russia on Saturday night, but then as the next two top tips haven't even made the final (gulp), the third tip has to be Greece.

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But are they really all that popular in the Eurozone right now? And could they afford the hosting bill if they win?

Prediction two: the song matters – Margot

Until 2004, qualification for the Eurovision contest was based on the average points received over the five previous years. However, that year, the system was dropped in favour of semi-finals.

The songs performed in the semi-finals are exactly the same as the ones performed during the final, and apart from a longer running order, all three nights are quite similar. If votes are based on preferences, then the songs that are popular in the semi-finals are popular in the final show as well.

Ever since the institution of the semi-final system, the winner of the competition has been present in the list of top songs in the semis. The only time this has not happened was when Germany won in 2010.

The data looks good for using the semis to predict the result: for the nerds, about 31% of the score in the finals is predicted by the score in the semis. In other words, you're really quite likely to score well in the finals if you do in the semis. So this is a brilliant way of predicting the final!

A slight flaw in this method is that it does not account for countries that are directly qualified for the final, which are France, the UK, Germany, Spain and Italy. However, none of these countries – except, as we said earlier, Germany – have won in the last nine years.

There's maybe a bigger problem, though. Eurovision themselves have also realised the semi-finals help prediction a lot. And so in order to 'maintain the suspense going until the last minute', they've hidden the results.

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But if you had access to the points, looking at the top scorers in the semi-finals could give you a good indication of who will be in the top three.

This being the Guardian, though, we've come up with a cunning workaround. On Friday morning, we asked people for their top three semi-final acts. More than 1,000 people responded to the unscientific poll (thanks!) – and based on that, expect good things from the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece.

The verdict

So, we have two battling sets of predictions.

Using the semi-finals to predict the finals looks pretty good: it's the richest source of data, it's pretty logical, and the correlation seems to back it up. But there's a big unknown quantity as a result of not having the real figures.

But if this is the system for you, our tips are: the Netherlands (33/1), Denmark (8/11) and Greece (50/1).

If you prefer the old-fashioned 'the song doesn't matter' approach, then Azerbaijan (16/1), Russia (16/1) and Greece (50/1) are the picks for you.

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Odds taken from oddschecker.com and correct as at 13:30 on Friday. We're not endorsing betting, though.

Alas, only if you're a wildly patriotic (and optimistic) Brit can we recommend rooting for Bonnie Tyler. But good luck with it all the same.

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Play'n go casino. What do you think of our predictions? Got a system of your own? Let us know in the comments below or via Twitter @guardiandata – and if you want to make one from scratch, we've included all the voting data since 1975 in the Google doc below.

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Get the data: